Unit 1: Changing Population

SDG 11: to make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

1.1 Population and economic development patterns

Population density: a measurement of population per unit land area

Human factor: a man-made cause or influence

Physical factor: a natural cause or influence

Human factors affecting global population distribution:

Economic reasons: Employment available
Social reasons: People often remain in a place due to cultural ties..
Political reasons: Conflict may cause people to leave a location

Physical factors affecting global population distribution:

Availability of water
Climate: temperate preferred
Arable Soil
Flat land
Resource Availability

GDP (Gross Domestic Product): The monetary value of all goods and services produced by a country during a time period (usually one year).

GNI (Gross National Income): the total domestic and foreign income earned by a country's residents and businesses.

Classifications according to World Bank estimates of 2015 in GNI per capita:

Low income ≤ US$1,000
Lower middle income US$1,000 to US$4,000
Upper middle income US$4,000 to US$12,500
High income ≥12,500 US$

Economic indicators that can be used to classify countries:

GNI
GDP
Gross National Product (GNP)
Employment structure (percent of primary, secondary, tertiary, quaternary workers)
Economic growth rate

Why countries experience a change in economic development

Human reasons:

A policy shift encouraging overseas investment boosts employment, tax revenue, and indirect job creation.
A lower fertility rate leads to smaller, manageable families, enabling access to primary, secondary, and tertiary education. An educated population fosters innovation and attracts investors.

Physical reasons:

New fossil fuel reserves fuel domestic industries, improve quality of life, boost health, and increase productivity.
Natural disasters like tsunamis, earthquakes, and floods devastate areas, disrupting secondary industries and tourism by destroying workers, buildings, and infrastructure.

Emerging economy: A rapidly growing market-based economy driven by government policy changes reducing debt and increasing GDP (e.g., Brazil, India, China).

Core-periphery Model: This model divides a country into a dominant core with economic and social significance and a less developed periphery.

Peripheral Characteristics

Lower population densities infrastructure

Lower contribution to a country's GDP

More people working in the primary sector

A lower number of urban settlements.

A lack of transportation services

Core Characteristics

Higher population densities

Higher contribution to a country's GDP

More people in the secondary and tertiary sectors

A higher number of urban settlements.

Abundant transportation infrastructure

What economic factors can cause internal migration:

A lack/ low-paid employment.
Pay inequality (i.e. gender pay gap).
High taxation.
A lack of access to education
A lack of investment from public and/or private sources

Why megacities grow:

Migrants (due to pull factors of the core) and natural increase have enlarged city populations

Why megacities may not be unstoppable:

Counter-urbanization occurs as people leave megacities, often due to issues like air pollution, seeking better health (e.g., Mexico City).
Governments try to reduce megacity populations by encouraging relocation or creating new cities elsewhere.

How political decisions can fuel megacity growth:

Investment in public services like healthcare and education attracts people to megacities for a better quality of life.
Investment in transportation and IT infrastructure makes areas more appealing for private investment and employment opportunities.

Human Factors which have caused megacity growth:

Migrants flock to megacities for a perceived higher quality of life.
City authorities may implement policies, like restrictions on environmentally harmful vehicles, to improve residents' quality of life.
New trade agreements by national governments can boost production and attract economic migrants to specific areas.
Corporations invest in megacities with available skilled or unskilled labour, attracting economic migrants seeking better employment opportunities.

Physical factors that have caused megacity growth:

Coastal areas are more attractive due to temperate climates compared to the hotter inland regions.
Arable land and ports with natural harbours have historically contributed to the development of cities.
Flat land supports city expansion to accommodate growing populations.
Climate has limited significance as the human ability to regulate temperatures allows habitation in various areas.
Fertile soil and pasture are no longer as crucial, as megacities can source food from other regions.

Economic pull factors include:

A higher possibility of securing employment or a more desirable job.
Lower taxation.
More secure rights for employees.

Social pull factors include:

Greater access to healthcare
Greater access to education
A desire to live closer to friends and family.

1.2 Changing populations and places

The total fertility rate (TFR): the average number of children a woman will give birth to during her childbearing years.

Crude birth rate (CBR): the number of babies born in a year per 1000 people.

Factors that cause the population to change:

Change in the crude birth rate
Change in the crude death rate
Migration

The factors affecting TFR:

Standard of living

Age of marriage
Infant mortality rates
The cost of raising children
The importance of children as part of a family’s labour force
The availability of reliable methods of birth control
Levels of urbanisation
The availability of aged services and pensions
Educational and employment opportunities for women
Family size preferences
Government Policies
Religion

The demographic transition model (DTM): the shift from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates

Natural Increase = crude birth rate - crude death rate

Dependency Ratio:

Reasons for the development in stage 5 of the demographic transition model:

Shifting to plant-based diets has increased life expectancy, reducing the crude death rate.
Advances in disease treatment and wider healthcare access boost life expectancy, lowering the crude death rate.
Socio-economic factors like women's empowerment, economic growth, and access to sex education and birth control reduce the crude birth rate.

The replacement level: the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next (often taken as TFR = 2.1). The .1 accounts for premature deaths of females and infertility.

Economic consequences of megacity growth:

Positive:

A manufacturing workforce increases employment.
Higher employment boosts tax revenues.
Greater disposable income supports service industry jobs.
Infrastructure development attracts further investment.

Negative:

Housing shortages lead to the growth of informal settlements.
Government demolitions of informal housing can harm residents and result in homelessness.
Unemployment can contribute to high crime rates.

Internal displacement: the forced movement of people within a country's borders

External migration: the voluntary or forced movement of people across a country's borders

Environmental consequences of forced migration:

Deforestation due to an increase in fuel demand
Overgrazing due to Increased demand for animal food
Illegal waste disposal

Asylum Seeker: a person who has left their home country because their life and freedom are at risk.

1.3: Challenges and Opportunities

The sex ratio: the ratio between the number of males and females

Greying population: an increase in the proportion of the population who are 65 or older

Negative consequences of aging populations:

Increase in state pensions paid
Shortage of care workers for the large proportion of elderly people

Positive consequences of an aging population:

Increased life expectancy and better health enable elderly individuals, often highly skilled, to extend their working years.
Elderly family members can provide childcare, saving costs and strengthening family bonds while allowing parents to work.

How an aging population causes depopulation:

Young people leaving urban areas for better opportunities reduces population growth over time.
A declining young population leads to business and school closures, further encouraging out-migration.

Pro-natalist policy: a policy which encourages an increase in the fertility rate

Anti-natalist policy: a policy which encourages a decrease in the fertility rate

Benefits of increasing gender equality:

Economic Benefits: Increased jobs boost GDP growth.
Social Benefits: Equal education for women promotes decision-making participation, benefiting other women, improving birth control understanding, health during pregnancy, and life expectancy.
Environmental Benefits: Women’s involvement in decision-making supports conservation and environmental protection.

Human trafficking: “The buying and selling of human beings across national borders for the purposes of prostitution, sexual slavery or forced labour”

Causes of Human Trafficking:

Poverty: Extreme poverty can lead to family members being sold for survival.
Lack of Education: Limited education restricts employment options, making individuals vulnerable to human trafficking.
Social and Cultural Practices: Slave labour may be used to settle debts.
Natural Disasters: Displacement or loss from disasters may force individuals into slavery or prostitution to survive.

Demographic dividend: the growth in an economy that results from a change in the age structure of a country's population, causing a larger percentage of a country's population to become part of the economically active segment.

Benefits of the Demographic Dividend:

Reduced government funding for youthful dependents frees capital for infrastructure and economic development.
Economic growth becomes sustainable as a youthful population transition